The end of the year historically ushers in some of the cheapest gas prices of the year. This was true in 2018 when the national gas price average was recorded at $2.26 on December 31. However, the national gas price average won’t go that low this month. 

The national average is $2.55 as of December 18, 2019. One year ago, the price was $2.37. AAA forecasts that gas prices will edge lower than they are today with the national average falling between $2.40-$2.45, but still 15-20 cents more than last December 31. 

Pump price savings, albeit it small, are coming to New York State this month and are likely to linger into next year. 

AAA forecasts that motorists can expect gas prices to edge cheaper by about a dime in the coming weeks as regional refinery rates and gasoline stocks increase throughout the Northeast region. 

Year-over-year, northeast regional gasoline stocks and refinery rates are at a deficit due to the fire and subsequent reduction in operations at the Philadelphia Energy Solutions (PES) refinery last summer. However, even without supply from the largest refinery on the East Coast, gas prices have not seen large spikes. Despite regional refinery rates that are down by nearly 20% compared to this this time last year, data from the Energy Information Administration shows stocks have been building since mid-November. Stocks are at relatively healthy levels thanks to imports, which are assisting in keeping the year-over-year gas price difference under 20-cents. 

“Motorists have been paying less to fill-up at the pump, but the savings may not be as significant as they’d like for this time of year,” said Elizabeth Carey, public relations director at AAA Western and Central New York. “The good news is that gas prices are not high enough to deter year end travelers from taking holiday trips. Normally, travelers tend to alter plans when gas prices hit $3 per gallon and we are well below that level now.” 

Depending on the part of the country, gas prices can fluctuate greatly. Some states are seeing large year-over year differences, while others have cheaper gas prices than a year ago. Here is a snapshot of year-over-year differences for New York State and AAA Western and Central New York regions:  

Oil Dynamics
Crude oil prices have been generally cheaper year-over-year. However, this winter’s prices could go over $60 per barrel as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its partners continue to reduce production to reduce global supply. 

Earlier this month, OPEC and other major global producers, including Russia, announced an agreement to cut their total crude production by an additional 500,000 barrels per day. The new OPEC production reduction agreement brings the total production cut to 1.7 million barrels per day, beginning on January 1, 2020. It is unclear how long the new agreement will be in place, but OPEC will likely review it and announce any amendments at its next meetings on March 5 and 6 in Vienna, Austria. 

“The reduction in global crude supply is expected to help drain the market, which will likely be oversupplied during the first half of next year,” added Club Rep. “This could potentially mean expensive crude oil and gas prices in January as compared to the start of recent years, assuming crude demand remains robust.”
In addition to the OPEC reduction, market analysts continue to have concerns about a reduction in global crude demand – a result of the ongoing trade war between the U.S. and China.

Savings with Shell and AAA
This month, AAA members can fill up for even less at Shell stations through the Fuel Rewards® at Shell Holiday Bonus Offer. In addition to the five cents per gallon offered through Fuel Rewards, new members will receive an additional 25 cents per gallon on their first fill up after registering for the first time as a Fuel Rewards member (30 cents total per gallon), through December 31, 2019. This bonus offer is not available to existing Fuel Rewards members.

Winter Fuel & Driving Tips 
As you hit the road this winter, AAA offers these tips to help conserve fuel and keep motorists safe:

• If possible, only run the engine and heater long enough to remove the chill. This will help to conserve fuel. Also, parking your car in a garage will help it stay warm.
• As a precaution, keep at least half a tank of fuel in your vehicle at all times. It helps to reduce condensation in the fuel system. It also helps ensure an adequate reserve of fuel to run the engine for heat should your car become disabled in a remote location.
• Be sure to pack an emergency roadside kit in your car containing a mobile phone and car charger, first-aid kit, blankets, drinking water and snacks, a flashlight with extra batteries, a basic toolkit, warning flares, an ice scraper, jumper cables and a shovel. 

Motorists can find current gas prices at GasPrices.AAA.com and along their route with the free AAA Mobile app for iPhone, iPad and Android. The app can also be used to map a route, find discounts, book a hotel and access AAA roadside assistance. Learn more at AAA.com/mobile.

* The Fuel Rewards® program is owned and operated by Excentus Corporation, a PDI company.