BUFFALO, N.Y., June 24, 2009 – AAA is projecting the number of Americans traveling on vacation this Fourth of July holiday weekend will decrease 1.9 percent from 2008. Approximately 37.1 million travelers will travel 50 miles or more away from home this year. Last year, 37.8 million Americans traveled during the same period, representing a 10.5 percent decline from the 42.3 million travelers who vacationed over the holiday in 2007.

AAA said the projected slight decline in leisure travel is mainly due to ongoing uncertainty about the strength of the economy; especially rising joblessness and sagging personal incomes. The recent rise in gasoline prices may also be causing some travelers to limit or abbreviate their holiday plans, although its impact on overall vacation costs remains minimal.

“Many Americans remain cautious about the outlook for their personal finances and these attitudes are reflected in the slight decline in travel we are forecasting for the upcoming holiday weekend," said Tom Chestnut, President/CEO of AAA Western and Central New York. "Those who vacation this summer will find it to be a smart time to travel with the plethora of attractive discounts and special offers, resulting in outstanding vacation values.”

Air travel to increase, while auto travel dips

Two million Americans are expected to travel by air, accounting for five percent of all Fourth of July leisure travel. This represents a modest 4.9 percent increase compared to 2008 and is attributed to declining airfares and pent up demand among vacationers who normally take to the skies. Last year Fourth of July’s actual air travel declined steeply, so this year’s rebound is significant.

AAA projects 32.6 million Americans will be on the roads, a 2.6 percent decline in auto travel from 33.4 million who took road trips last year. Although the Fourth of July holiday is typically the busiest time of year for auto travel since nearly all school-aged children are out of school and, as a result, parents are more apt to take family vacations, the relatively steep price increase in gasoline since May will dampen consumer enthusiasm for road trips.

Trips by other/multi modes, including air/auto combinations, rail, buses and watercraft, will be the dominant means of travel used by an estimated 2.5 million Americans, or 7 percent of all travelers.

Gas prices rise, then slow

Last year’s Fourth of July holiday saw record high gasoline prices over $4.00 per gallon. This year, fuel prices have rapidly increased since May but are beginning to show signs of leveling off. Currently, the nationwide average price of self-serve regular is $2.68; a difference of $1.39 compared to last year.

Travelers in New York State can expect to pay $2.85 per gallon on average. In the Buffalo/Niagara region, the average price of a gallon of gasoline is $2.80 as of this morning, compared to $4.25 a year ago. Rochester motorists are paying an average of $2.80 a gallon today, and the per gallon average in the Syracuse area is $2.79. Last year, motorists paid $4.23 and $4.22 in Rochester and Syracuse areas, respectively.

Airfare and lodging costs lower, rental cars higher

According to AAA’s Leisure Travel Index, the lowest average published airfares over the Fourth of July holiday weekend are expected to decrease 16 percent from last year with the average airline ticket costing $169.

Hotel rates for AAA Three Diamond and Two Diamond lodgings are expected to be 12 percent less than last year with travelers spending an average of $137 per night for Three Diamond properties and $101 per night for Two Diamond properties.

Car rental rates are up slightly with consumers paying an average of $51 per day compared to $49 a year ago, an increase of five percent.

Average spending will be $1,160 and average distance traveled will be 614 miles

Fourth of July travelers expect to spend approximately $1,160 per household this upcoming holiday weekend. Transportation and accommodations will account for about half of trip spending, while food and beverage absorbs another 20 percent of the holiday budget. Shopping, entertainment and recreation will account for the remaining 30 percent of spending on average.

Fourth of July travelers will log an average of 614 miles roundtrip this upcoming holiday weekend. Over one third (38%) of travelers will stay relatively close to home, with expected round trips of under 250 miles. One third of weekend travelers will log between 250 and 700 miles. Twenty-eight percent will travel over 700 miles round trip.

In cooperation with AAA, IHS Global Insight has developed a unique approach to forecasting actual travel that explicitly considers current economic conditions, past Fourth of July holiday travel trends and behavior, and the recent assessment of pre-holiday American travel intentions derived from a survey of 2,700 American households.

As Upstate New York’s largest member services organization, AAA provides nearly 880,000 members with travel, insurance, financial and automotive related services. Since its founding in 1900, AAA has been a leading advocate for the safety and security of all travelers. Visit AAA at www.AAA.com.